In the chaos of Libya
The dossier ‘In the chaos of Libya’ is aimed at presenting and explaining the current crisis which has been affecting Libya since the end of the Qaddafi regime, and at proposing possible solutions to it. Since 2011, Libya has seemingly plunged into a chaotic situation involving the political-military, economic and social domains. Politically speaking, the recent elections, which ended up with the victory of the liberal and moderate forces, did not seem to open a new era of stability.
Instead, the adoption of a new Constitution is endangered by the jihadists’ violent attitude, by the power dispersion among various tribes and clans, and the militias’ refusal to integrate with the newly created army which is consequently weak and embryonic. The power fragmentation is reflected into the economy which struggles to return to its pre-war levels. The Libyan economy, mainly based on the oil exportation, has undergone wide fluctuations because of political/military instability and the clashes in the areas neighboring the production sites. Undoubtedly, this political, economic and energetic malaise impacts on the regional economy and on the politics as well.
The researches, drawing upon academic studies and first hand documents, are aimed at analyzing the Libyan crisis according to its different dimensions to provide the reader with different keys of interpretation. Nonetheless, the results demonstrated the interconnection between the above considered domains and showed that political stability cannot be achieved without previously solving the problems existing between the army and the militias, without reversing the power fragmentation between the state, the tribes and clans and, in particular, without reducing the jihadist danger. Political stability is essential for injecting new life blood in the economy, for instance through diversification and foreign investments.
Thus, the conclusion is at the same time simple and almost impossible to achieve, at least for the moment. Will it be necessary, as it has been suggested, to come back to a kind of new authoritarian regime for the sake of stability?